How we rate transfer rumours
Every rumour on the Desk carries three independent scores out of 10. They update continuously as new reporting lands. Here's exactly what goes into each one.
1. Deal Rating — how likely is this move?
The Deal Rating answers a single question: how close is this transfer to actually happening? A signed-and-announced move is a 10. A wild internet rumour with no named source is a 1. In between we weight:
- Stage of the deal — monitoring, contact, talks, agreement, medical, done.
- Number of reputable outlets independently reporting it.
- Recency of the latest update — old rumours decay automatically.
- Whether the originating reporter has confirmed it themselves versus aggregated it from elsewhere.
2. Credibility — how much should you trust the source?
Credibility is about the messenger, not the message. Each source carries a track record built from how often their reported moves convert into confirmed transfers. Tier-1 reporters who consistently break confirmed deals (Romano, Ornstein, Plettenberg, Schira, Bild, Marca etc.) score high; anonymous aggregator accounts score low even when they happen to repeat a true story.
3. Buzz — how much is the football world talking?
Buzz captures volume and velocity. How many outlets have picked it up? How fast is the story spreading? How are fans voting on it? A low Buzz score on a high-credibility story means a quiet, technical move; a high Buzz score on a low-credibility story is a sign to be sceptical.
Why three scores, not one?
A single number hides too much. A 9/10 from a tier-1 reporter at the medical stage is very different from a 9/10 driven entirely by social-media noise. Three scores let you see why a rumour is hot, not just that it is.
See the methodology in action — start from the live feed.
Frequently asked questions
- What does the Deal Rating out of 10 actually mean?
- It's our best read of how likely a transfer is to actually happen, blending the stage of the deal, the credibility of the reporters covering it, the number of independent corroborations, and the recency of the latest update. A 10 is signed and announced; a 1 is internet noise.
- How is Credibility different from the Deal Rating?
- Credibility scores the messenger, not the message. A Tier 1 reporter like David Ornstein, Fabrizio Romano or Florian Plettenberg scores high; anonymous aggregator accounts score low even when they happen to repeat a true story.
- Why do you cap single-source stories?
- One outlet, however good, can be wrong. Until a second independent source corroborates, we cap how high a story can climb — typically at 'Heating up' rather than 'Nearly done'.
- How quickly do ratings update?
- We re-score continuously as new evidence lands and decay scores when stories go quiet. Major updates from Tier 1 reporters typically reflect within minutes.
- Do you publish anonymous rumours?
- No. We require a named reporter or an official club channel. We exclude anonymous aggregator accounts from our ingest list.
- What's the difference between Deal Rating and Fan Vote?
- The Deal Rating is editorial — driven by the evidence. The Fan Vote is the audience's own prediction. We show both so you can see where the wisdom of the crowd matches or disagrees with the reporting.